生物质气化火灾爆炸事故BN-LOPA分析

Biomass Gasification Fire and Explosion Accident BN-LOPA Analysis

提出一种基于BN-LOPA的生物质气化火灾爆炸事故评价方法。绘制出生物质气化火灾爆炸故障树并转换为贝叶斯网络,计算出的事故发生概率为2.600×10-3,根据风险矩阵得出对应风险等级为10级,因此需要在计划内采取安全措施降低风险。采用贝叶斯网络的向后推导计算基本事件后验概率,找出失效后易导致事故发生的节点,对这些节点设置独立防护层并计算设置后基本事件及顶事件的发生概率。最后得出在设置独立防护层后,生物质气化火灾爆炸事故的发生概率降低至8.068×10-6,对应风险等级从10级降至5级,可满足安全生产的要求。

In this paper an assessment method for biomass gasification fire and explosion accident based on BN- LOPA is proposed. The biomass gasification fire and explosion accident fault tree is drawn out and turned into Bayesian network,finding out the probability of the accident with 2. 600 × 10- 3. The risk grade is given to 10 based on risk matrix,so it needs safety measures to reduce risk designedly. The posterior probability of basic events by Bayesian network is calculated and the points are found out,which will easily lead to accident after failure. The independent protective layer for the points is set and the probability of basic events and top event after setting protective layer is calculated. Finally it is found out that the probability of biomass gasification fire and explosion accident can be reduced to 8. 068 × 10- 6and the corresponding risk grade reduced from 10 to 5. So it can meet the requirements of the safety production.