宏观经济不确定性、政府干预与信贷资源配置

Macroeconomic Uncertainty,Government Intervention and Credit Allocation

与传统的从银行视角考察宏观经济不确定性对信贷资源配置影响的文献不同,本文从企业微观视角探讨这一问题,并且检验了地方政府在不同宏观经济条件下对信贷资源配置的异质性效应。结果发现,宏观经济不确定性水平越高,企业获取贷款数量越少,这种效应对高成长公司更大,表明在宏观经济不确定性水平较高时,金融摩擦降低了信贷资源配置效率。进一步地,政府干预能够降低宏观经济不确定性对贷款总量的负向影响。然而,从贷款结构上看,政府干预的这种效应集中在低增长公司、差治理公司以及劳动密集型公司。这说明,在宏观经济波动风险加大时,政府拥有更高的激励干预银行贷款,然而,这种行为并非使贷款偏向优质企业从而纠正市场失灵,反而进一步加剧了宏观经济不确定性对信贷资源配置效率的负面影响。上述研究发现对于进一步理解宏观经济不确定性以及政府行为在信贷资源配置中的作用具有重要意义,也对新常态背景下的经济实践具有一定的启示。

Macroeconomic uncertainty can exert large influence on banks and firms, and its real effect has re- ceived great interest in recent years. Some scholars argue that high maeroeeonomic uncertainty may prevent bank managers from estimating the profit and risk of borrowers accurately loans. And it will have negative effect on credit allocation efficiency （ , which makes risk-averse bankers cut down Quagliariello ,2005 ）. However, these evidence only focus on banks instead of firms and they only investigate how macroeconomic uncertainty affect the cross-sec- tional behavior of banks, which provide indirect evidence of the effect of macroeconomie uncertainty on credit re- sources allocation. Other scholars have indeed surveyed the real effect of macroeeonomic uncertainty on firm varia- bles. However,these papers focus on firms＇ investment or cash holdings （Beaudry et al. ,2001 ; Wang and Song, 2014）, and evidence of the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on credit allocation is fairly limited. Furthermore, previous research have neglected the role of institutional factors, such as government intervention, when dealing with the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty. How macroeconomic uncertainty affects the credit allocation efficiency from firms＇ perspective is still a mystery. Moreover, it is conomy has stepped meaningful for exploiting this topic in China＇ s New Normal background. Nowadays China＇ s e- into New Normal stage. The New Normal means that economic growth will slow down, economic structure will be reshaped and the mode of economic growth will shift from factor-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven （Liu and Su ,2014）. In times of New Normal, the macroeconomic uncertainty is higher, which will have effect on the micro economic agent by pact of macroeconomic uncertainty and gove na＇ s listed firms from 2003 to 2012. changing the credit allocation mode. Therefore, this paper focus on im- rnment intervention on credit allocation efficiency by using data of Chi- Empirical results show：（ 1 ） Maeroeconomic uncertainty has negative effect on loans to firms, which is consist- ent with previous research. And this effect is larger for high growth firms, which means that in times of high macro- economic uncertainty financial friction lowers the credit allocation efficiency. （2） Government intervention can miti- gate the negative effect of maeroeconomic uncertainty on quantity of loans. It means that local government has incen- tives to affect the loan policy of banks when faced with the consequence of macroeconomic uncertainty. （ 3 ） From loan structure perspective, however, effect from government intervention is pronounced in low growth firms, firms with bad governance and labor-intensive finns. This means that although in times of high macroeconomic uncertainty local government has more incentives to intervene loan policy, it dose not make more loans flow to high growth firms and other good firms to solve the market failure. Government intervention has made even more fund flow to low-qual- ity firms,which amplifies the negative effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on credit allocation efficiency. Our study make two main contribution to the field of study. First, this paper makes first attempt to innovate re- search on the relation between maeroeconomic uncertainty and credit allocation efficiency from banks perspective to firms perspective, which will make the scholars understand more about the real effect of macroeconomic uncertainty. Second,this paper surveys how local government react to the maeroeeonomie uncertainty and the effect of government reaction. Previous research have focused on how China＇ s local government affect firms＇ investment and loans, and take less consideration in government＇ s differential incentives and behavior in different periods. This papers extends the perspective of this strand of research and have some implications for future research on local gov- ernment＇ s incentives and behavior and its effect on credit resources.