中国地方政府土地财政的影响因素研究——基于地市面板数据

Influence Factors of Land Finance in China:An Empirical Research of Panel Data from Municipal-Level Cities in China

本研究较早采用软预算约束理论,从财政分权制度、政治晋升制度和社会发展因素三个方面,系统构建了中国地方政府土地财政影响因素的理论模型,并采用2003—2007年中国257个地市级政府的面板数据实证验证了该理论模型。实证发现,财政支出分权、地区经济发展水平、城镇化水平、产业结构和土地面积均对土地财政具有显著的正向影响关系。此外,财政收入分权和地方政府官员的年龄对土地财政具有显著的负向影响关系;官员任职对土地财政具有显著的倒U型影响关系。最后,本研究提出未来缓解土地财政的可能路径在于推进地方政府财力和事权的匹配,以及完善官员晋升制度体系。

Land finance has become one of the most important issues in government management and it is draw- ing wide attention in all social sectors. Local government＇ s marvelous growing rely on the land finance is significant- ly affecting our national economic and social development. Looking for the reason why the local governments exces- sive rely on the land finance is the present focus of theoretical research and management practice, but the debate on factors of land finance is still unsolved. The existed research on the influencing factors of the implementation of land finance is still not systematic, it needs theoretical frame to analyze and verify. The discussion is even rare in the view of soft budget constrain. Based on the view of soft budget constrain, this paper construct a systematic frame of a local government＇ s influencing factors, and then explain the mechanism of the implementation of local government＇ s fi- nance. The practical value of this paper is that it identifies the key decisive factors of local government＇ s relying on the land finance, and then it offers the experience for better understanding of land finance behavior of local govern- ment and improving the relative government institution. Based on the soft budget constraint theory, and starting from fiscal decentralization system and official promo- tion system, this paper constructs a systematic theory model of influence factors including fiscal decentralization, po- litical promotion and social development factors. It analysis the affecting relationship of fiscal revenue decentraliza- tion ,fiscal expenditure decentralization, financial self-supply ability, fiscal dependents, official promotion competi- tion, official characteristics, economic development level, urbanization level, industrial structure and land area on land finance. This paper empirically examines the influence factors of land finance in china, using panel data from 257 municipal-level governments （ form 2003--2007 ）. The main conclusion and innovative points basically shows in the following three aspects： Firstly, based on the traditional fiscal decentralization theory, this paper discusses the effect of financial revenue and expenditure on land finance. And meanwhile the concept of financial self-supply ability and fiscal dependents are introduced to discuss the effect of policy burden on land finance. Empirical study shows that a notable positive relationship exists between the fiscal expenditure decentralization and land finance. And also shows that there is a negatively relationship between fiscal revenue decentralization and land finance. Except for this, this paper also shows that there is a positively relationship between self-supply ability and land finance. Secondly, based on the promotion tournament theory, and started with the view of promotion competition of the local official, this paper analyzes the effect of promotion competition and official characteristics on land finance. The results show that there is no notable relationship between the promotion competition and land finance. But the offi- cial＇ s age has a negatively effect on land finance, and official＇ s tenure has inverse U-shape effect on land finance. Thirdly, this paper also analyzes the effect of the other social development factors on land finance. It finds that economic development level, urbanization level, industrial structure and land area all have a positively affect on lo- cal governmental land finance. The value of this research is that it broadens and develops the application of soft budget constrain theory in China local government, it even provides a new theoretical view for land finance, also it enriches the research of the land finance of local government. The practical value of this paper is that it identifies the key decisive factors of lo- cal government＇ s relying on the land finance. And then it offers the experience for better understanding of land fi- nance behavior of local government and improving the relative government institution.