结构转换能力与专业化模式变迁——基于金砖四国出口数据的比较分析

Capability of Structural Transformation and Evolution of Specialization Patterns: A Comparative Analysis Based on BRIC's Export Data

采用HS(1992)六位数出口数据,选择美国作为比较基准国,对金砖四国的结构转换能力与专业化模式变迁进行比较,实证检验了结构转换能力对专业化模式的影响。研究发现:与美国相比,金砖四国现有专业化模式层次相对较低,结构转换能力不够强;中印两国在专业化模式及演进上具有较多相似性;中国结构转换能力相对较强,其次是印度,而巴西和俄罗斯的结构转换能力不断下降;未来金砖四国在技术复杂度高的产品部门有较多潜在优势产品,但目前结构转换能力与转换空间不够一致。

By adopting HS （1992） six-digit export data and taking U.S.A as a benchmark country, this paper makes a comparison between the structure transformation capability and the evolution of spe- cialization patterns of BRIC countries, so as to empirically test the impact of the structure transformation capability on the specialization patterns. The result shows that, compared with the U.S.A, the existing levels of their specialization patterns are relatively lower and their structure transformation capabilities are relatively weaker. China and India have many similarities in the specialization patterns and the evolution process. China＇ s capability of structure transformation is relatively stronger, followed by India, but the capabilities of Brazil and Russia are declining. In the future, BRIC countries will have more ＂products with potential advantages＂ in the sectors with higher level of technical sophistication. At present, howev- er, their capabilities of structure transformation are not consistent with the transformation space.