中国人口老龄化、技术创新与经济增长的动态影响分析

The Dynamic Analysis of China Population Aging,Technological Innovation and Economic Growth

基于1999—2013年的中国省级面板数据,运用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR),研究了我国人口老龄化趋势、技术创新和经济增长之间的动态关系。研究结果表明:滞后一期的老年抚养比对经济增长的影响是负面的,但不显著。滞后二期和三期的人口老年抚养比对经济增长的影响显著,其中滞后二期的老年抚养比对经济增长的影响是负向的,而滞后三期的老年抚养比对经济增长的影响是正向,这提示我们人口老龄化对中国经济增长的影响存在一定的滞后性和复杂性。短期看,中国人口老龄化必然对经济增长产生不利影响;长期看,人口老龄化对经济增长的影响作用在于其正负效应的对比。滞后一期的技术创新和人均GDP对当期的技术创新影响显著,说明经济增长对技术进步有着正向的促进作用。就现阶段来看,中国的人口老龄化进程并没有显著地影响我国的技术创新。以上发现对于中国未来应对老龄化问题、技术进步和经济增长提供一些启示。

This paper makes an empirical study on the dynamic relationships on population aging, technological innovation and economic growth by using panel data VAR model based on Chinese provincial panel data from 1999 to 2013. The results show that： effects of the one lagged elderly dependency ratio on the economic growth are negative, but not significant. Effects of the two and three lagged elderly dependency ratio on the economic growth are significant, of which influence of two lagged is negative, and three lagged is positive, which prompt us that the mechanism of population aging to economic growth in China is a complicated process. In the short term, population aging in China is bound to adversely affect economic growth ; in the long term, the influence of population aging to e- conomic growth lies in the comparison of its positive and negative effects. One lagged effect of technology innovation and per capita GDP to technology innovation is significant ; it indicated that economic growth has a positive promoting effect on technological progress. At present, the aging did not significantly influence the technological innovation of our country. These findings provide some enlightenment for China＇s future to deal with the population aging problem, technology progress and economic growth.