人民币资本项目开放模型及其在上海自贸区的实践

The studies of RMB capital account opening model and its corresponding policies in Shanghai FTZ

文章在利率平价理论基础上,以"放宽汇率、利率波动换取资本自由流动区间扩大"设计人民币资本项目开放模型,从折衷的角度探讨上海自贸区人民币资本项目开放实验及相关政策。该模型将外汇市场分为自由流动区间、政府干预区间和危机区间,并根据资本市场套利公式分析得出,可以从"放宽人民币汇率和利率的自由波动幅度、促进资本流动、增加资本市场的供给弹性、扩大外汇市场交易规模、降低外汇市场交易费用"等五个方面促进人民币自由流动区间扩大,从而安全有效地推动人民币资本项目开放。通过结合上海自贸区的实践,文章分别从这五个方面论证了自贸区"分账管理体系"、"人民币跨境支付体系"等相应政策措施的有效性,同时提出了一系列有待进一步实施的措施建议。

Based on the interest rate parity theory and from a moderated perspective,this paper designs an RMB capital account liberalization model according to ' relax the exchange rate & interest rate fluctuations in exchange for the expand of capital free flow zone',and explores the RMB capital account liberalization experiment and related policies in Shanghai FTZ. The model divided the RMB foreign exchange market into three intervals: capital free flow zone,government intervention zone and crisis zone. Based on the capital market arbitrage equation,we can expand the safe and effective RMB capital account liberalization from five aspects( in the capital free-flow zone) : Relaxing the control on exchange rate and interest rates fluctuation range,promoting capital flow,expanding the scale of foreign exchange market and reducing transaction costs. Combined with practical experiences of Shanghai FTZ in these five aspects,we demonstrated the validity of ' account management system', ' RMB cross-border payment system' and other appropriate policies and measures in FTZ,and proposed a series of measures to be further implemented.