Φ6mm球形破片速度预报不确定度的评定方法

Evaluation Method of Speed Forecasting Uncertainty About Φ6mm Spherical Fragments

破片速度是评价破片式战斗部毁伤效能的重要指标之一,为准确预报破片速度并给出其预报不确定度范围,本文针对Φ6mm球形破片速度衰减规律进行实验研究.采用区截测速法获取实验数据,通过对实验数据的分析掌握了球形破片速度衰减规律.为准确预报破片速度,建立了破片速度预报经验模型,分析了影响破片速度预报不确定度的因素,并分别探讨了各预报不确定度分量的计算方法,建立了速度预报不确定度模型.实验表明,该模型可以准确预报破片速度.

The speed of fragments is an important indicator to evaluate the damage effectiveness of frag-mentation warhead.For forecasting the fragments speed accurately and presenting the range of the speed uncertainty,the experiment was conducted which focused on the attenuation law ofΦ6 mm spherical fragments speed in this paper.Cutting device is used to capture the signal,mastering the speed attenua-tion law of spherical fragments through analyzing the experiment data.We built the speed forecasting module in order to forecast fragments speed accurately.Based on the speed forecasting module,we ana-lyzed the elements that influence speed forecasting uncertainty.We discussed the calculation methods of these uncertainty components,which based on the model of speed forecasting.Then the model of speed forecasting uncertainty was built.The experiments proved that this model could forecast the speed accu-rately.