广东能源消费碳排放趋势与前景展望

Trend and Outlook of Carbon Emission from Energy Consumption in Guangdong Province,China

能源消费是人类活动排放CO2等温室气体的主要来源,碳减排已成为我国能源发展的一个重要约束因素。2012年全世界能源消费排放3.173 4×1010t CO2,中国能源消费排放的CO2已占世界总排放量的26.0%。2012年全世界人均CO2排放量4 510 kg,而中国人均CO2排放量达到了6 093 kg。同年广东省人均CO2排放量为5 224 kg,高于世界平均水平,低于全国平均水平。随着节能减排和应对气候变化工作的推进,广东的单位产值能耗水平逐年降低,能源结构不断改善,使得全省化石能源消费带来的CO2排放量的增长势头得到抑制,2012年的排放量比2011年略有减少。按目前的发展趋势预测,到2020年,广东CO2排放总量将达到1.606 2×108t碳当量,比2012年增加9.69×106t碳当量,人均CO2排放量将达到5 287 kg,略高于2012年的5 224 kg。如果在"十三五"期间加快第三产业发展,则到2020年广东省化石能源消费总量将比2012年下降2.7%,CO2排放总量将比2012年下降3.5%,人均CO2排放量将由2012年的5 224 kg下降到2020年的4 795 kg,接近世界平均水平。

Energy consumption is the main source of carbon dioxide from human activity,and carbon mitigation has become an important constraint on the energy development in China. The total CO2 emission of the World in 2012 from energy consumption is up to3. 173 4 × 1010 t of CO2. The total CO2 emission from energy consumption in China occupies 26. 0% of the World total. The per capita emission for the World in 2012 is 4 510 kg CO2,and it is 6 093 kg CO2 for China. The per capita emission for Guangdong province in 2012 is 5 224 kg CO2,which is higher than that for the world but lower than that for China. With the progress of the effort for energy conservation and emissions reduction as well as combating climate change,the per unit production energy consumption level in Guangdong Province is becoming lower year by year,and the energy mix is also improving,which suppressed the growth tendacy of the CO2 emission from fossil fuel consumption in the province. The total emission in 2012 is a little less than that in 2011. It is predicted according to the present trend situation,the total carbon emission from energy consumption in Guangdong province will reach 1. 606 2 × 108 t carbon equivalent in 2020,about 9. 69 × 106 t of carbon equivalent more than that in 2012. And the per capita emission will reach 5 287 kg,a little higher than the 5 224 kg in 2012. If the development of the third industry is accelerated during the thirteenth five- year period,the total consumption of fossil fuel in 2020 will be 2. 7% less than that in 2012,and the total CO2 emission will be 3. 5% less than that in 2012. The per capita CO2 emission will be lowered from 5 224 kg in 2012 to 4 795 kg in2020,which will be approching the average level of the world then.