2007年湖南省洪涝事件相关敏感性法定传染病的筛选

Screening for sensitive notifiable infectious diseases relevant to floods happened in 2007 in Hu'nan province

目的筛选出湖南省洪涝相关的敏感性法定传染病,为进一步定量研究洪涝事件对我国人群的健康影响提供线索。方法选定湖南省2007年6月上旬发生的洪涝事件进行分析,通过Poisson两样本率比较方法,在控制洪涝事件对传染病的季节效应和滞后效应基础上,以横断面分析比较暴露期洪涝区与非洪涝区法定传染病的发病情况,以纵向对比分析比较洪涝区洪涝期与其历史对照期法定传染病的发病情况,选取横、纵向比较分析中发病风险均增加且有统计学意义的传染病为敏感性疾病。结果人群在洪涝暴露后,细菌性痢疾、流行性感冒、其他感染性腹泻病、乙脑分别在旬滞后期lag2、lag3、lag3、lag4达到最大归因分值(AR%),分别为34.1%、17.0%、59.8%、95.6%。结论细菌性痢疾、流行性感冒、其他感染性腹泻、乙脑为湖南省洪涝相关的敏感性传染病,洪涝暴露导致前三者人群发病风险的增加可持续至洪涝后近1个月,对乙脑的影响持续时间更为长久。

Objective To screen the sensitive notifiable diseases relevant to floods in Hu＇nan province, so that to provide clue for further quantitative research on the health impact of floods. Methods A typical flood event happened in early June, 2007 in Hu＇nan province was analyzed, the incidence of infectious disease in flood area and non-flood area （cross-section comparative analysis）, meanwhile, in the flood phase and the history control phase （longitudinal comparative analysis） was compared, a combined screening was made by comparison incidence of two sample based on the Poisson distribution within the control of seasonal effect and lag effect （10-day）. Results After the exposure to flood, the attributable risk percent （AR%） due to flood of bacillary dysentery, influenza, other infectious diarrhea and encephalitis B among the population attained the peak at the lag2, lag3, lag3, lag4, correspondingly, and value of which was 34.1%, 17.0%, 59.8% and 95.6%. Conclusion Bacillary dysentery, influenza, other infectious diarrhea and encephalitis B are the sensitive infectious diseases relevant to flood in Hu＇ nan province, and the risk effect attributes to flood may last one month for the former three, and the effect on encephalitis B may keep more longer.