2006年辽宁省洪水事件对法定传染病的影响研究

Impacts of flood event on notifiable infectious diseases in Liaoning province in 2006

目的分析2006年辽宁省洪水事件对法定传染病的影响,筛选洪水事件的敏感性法定传染病。方法根据2006年8月1—6日辽宁省发生的严重洪涝灾害,将2006年8月上旬定义为洪水暴露期,将2005、2007年8月上旬和2006年7月下旬定义为对照期,考虑到洪水对传染病的影响可能存在滞后效应,本研究选择滞后期为1~4旬进行滞后效应分析。整理暴露期和对照期疾病数据进行统计学分析并计算相对危险度,根据相对危险度确定疾病的最佳滞后期,并计算最佳滞后期处的标化发病比。结果经筛选确定此次洪水事件对灾后痢疾、猩红热的发生存在影响且存在滞后效应,滞后期均为2旬。痢疾、猩红热在各自最佳滞后期处标化发病比及其95%CI分别为1.61（95%CI：1.52~1.72）、0.67（95%CI：0.47~0.92）。结论痢疾、猩红热可能为2006年辽宁省洪水事件的敏感性疾病。

Objective To detect sensitive notifiable infectious diseases in flood events in Liaoning province in 2006. Methods According to the severe flood happened in Liaoning province in August 1 to 6, 2006, the first ten-day period of August in 2006 was defined as the exposure period of flood event, and the first ten-day period of August in 2005, 2007 and the last ten-day period of June in 2006 were defined as the control periods. Considering the potential lag effect of floods on the notifiable infectious diseases, 1-4 ten-lagged days were conducted as the lag periods to analyze the lag effect. The data of diseases in exposure and control periods were organized and the statistical analysis was conducted to calculate the relative risk. The lag periods of the different studied diseases were determined on the basis of the estimated relative risk, and the standardized incidence ratios at the lag period were also calculated. Results The incidenees of dysentery and scarlet fever had been significantly influenced by the flood event with lag effect. The lag periods of dysentery and scarlet fever were 2 ten-days. The SIR values of the these two diseases were 1.61 （95%CI：1.52-1.72）, 0.67 （95%CI：0.47-0.92） , respectively. Conclusion Dysentery and scarlet fever may be sensitive diseases for flood event in Liaoning province in 2006.