2006—2010年浙江省热带气旋与流行性腮腺炎发病关系的初步研究

Relationship between tropical cyclone and incidence of mumps in Zhejiang, China, 2005-2010

目的探讨2006—2010年热带气旋对浙江省流行性腮腺炎发病的影响。方法用Mann-Whitney U检验的方法初步筛查热带气旋发生前后流行性腮腺炎发病数是否有差异,然后使用单向病例交叉设计分别分析热带风暴和台风与≤14岁全人群及该年龄组男女儿童流行性腮腺炎发病的关系。结果热带气旋桑美、海鸥、莫拉克登陆浙江后,流行性腮腺炎的发病数下降(P<0.05)。热带风暴对≤14岁全人群及男女儿童流行性腮腺炎的发病影响无统计学意义。台风登陆后,≤14岁全人群及男童和女童的流行性腮腺炎发病危险均下降,分别在滞后第16、16、14天降低最多。与热带风暴相比,台风登陆市≤14岁全人群及男童、女童的流行性腮腺炎发病危险降低,均在滞后第19天降低最多。结论经初步研究,热带气旋可降低≤14岁全人群流行性腮腺炎的发病风险。

Objective To explore the impacts of tropical cyclone on the incidence of mumps in Zhejiang province, from 2006 to 2010. Methods Mann-Whitney U test was firstly used to examine the association between tropical cyclone and the incidence of mumps in the landfall city of Zhejiang province, from 2006 to 2010. Then a case cross-over study was performed to evaluate the relationships between incidence of mumps and tropical storm and typhoon respectively among children aged ≤14 years. Results The mumps cases number decreased after landfall of tropical cyclone including Saomei, Kalmaegi and Morakot （P〈0.05）. There were no significant relationship between tropical storm and mumps incidence. After typhoon, the risk of mumps decreased to a minimum on the 16, 16, 14 lag days among children aged ≤14 years, males and females respectively. Compared with tropical storm, the risk of mumps decreased to a minimum on the 19, 19, 19 lag days after typhoon among children aged≤14 years, males and females respectively. Conclusion The tropical cyclone may decrease the risk of mumps among children aged ≤14 years in Zhejiang.