北京市犬咬伤就诊人数与气象因素关系研究

Correlation between emergency visits of dog bites and meteorological factors in Beijing

目的定量分析日均气温、相对湿度与犬咬伤就诊人数的关系。方法收集了2008年1月1日至2012年12月31日的北京市三所综合型三甲医院的犬咬伤急诊就诊数据与同期气象数据资料。定量评估日均气温、相对湿度与犬咬伤就诊人数的关系。结果当平均气温〉5.6℃时,每升高1℃,犬咬伤日均就诊人数增加2.46%（95%CI：2.36%~2.66%）。当相对湿度〈72%时,每增加1%,犬咬伤日均就诊人数增加0.58%（95%CI：0.57%~0.75%）。广义相加模型对犬咬伤月均就诊人数的预报和逐步回归模型对日均人数的预报效果较好,准确率分别为94.3%和99.7%。结论气象因素与犬咬伤就诊人数存在一定的统计关联。

Objective To know the relationship between the average air temperature, relative humidity and the emergency visits of dog bites in Beijing. Methods The dog bite emergency cases from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2012 were collected from three large comprehensive hospitals in Beijing and the meteorological data of Beijing in the same period were also collected, and the relationship between emergency visits of dog bites and meteorological factors was quantitatively analyzed.Results When the average temperature was higher than 5.6 ℃, the daily emergency visits of dog bites increased by 2.46%（95%CI： 2.36%-2.66%） for each increased 1 ℃. While the relative humidity was less than 72%, increased by 0.58%（95%CI：0.57%-0.75%） for each increased 1%. The prediction effect of GAM for the average monthly visits and multiple stepwise regression for the average daily number of dog bite emergency visit was good, with the forecast accuracy of 94.3% and 99.7%.Conclusion There exists certain statistical correlation between the meteorological factors and the emergency visits of dog bites.