吉林省猪肉价格波动影响因素实证分析

An empirical analysis of the influencing factors on the fluctuation of pork price in Jilin province

猪肉市场价格是体现猪肉供给与需求情况的一个重要指标。文章从供给和需求两个层面上分析了影响吉林省猪肉价格变动的主要因素,从生猪生产、国民经济水平、养殖户预期、居民收入水平、替代品价格以及其他6个方面选择仔猪价格、城镇居民人均收入等9个影响因素,运用主成分回归分析进行实证研究,得出各因素对吉林省猪肉价格变动的影响程度,并提出相应对策。

The market price of pork is an important index reflecting the supply and demand of pork. This paper analyzes the main influencing factors for the movement of pork price in Jilin province from the two aspects of supply and demand. It chooses the nine influencing factors such as piglet price, per capita income of urban residents from the following aspects： pork production, the level of national economy, famers＇antici- pation, income level of resident, price of substitutes and other six aspects. This paper uses the principal component regression analysis for an empirical research to obtain the influencing degrees of various factors for the movement of pork price in Jilin province, and puts forward corre-sponding