中国对东盟直接投资：区位选择、影响因素及投资效应

China's Direct Investment Toward ASEAN:Location,Influencing Factors and Investing Effects

自2010年中国-东盟自由贸易区成立以来,中国对东盟的直接投资快速发展。利用空间滞后模型分析中国对东盟直接投资区位选择的影响因素,可以判断直接投资的类型,并检验中国对东盟的直接投资是否存在"第三方效应"。实证结果表明:实际汇率、相对市场规模和工资差异在中国对东盟的直接投资上有显著的正向影响,并且中国对东盟各国的贸易促进了对其直接投资;能源和税率在中国对东盟的直接投资上有显著的负向影响;基础设施、政治风险和开放度在中国对东盟的直接投资上影响不显著;中国对东盟直接投资的类型是水平型;中国对东盟直接投资的"第三方效应"不显著。

Since to establishment of China-ASEAN free trade area in 2010, China＇s direct investment to ASEAN has gotten rapid development. This paper analyzes the factors that influence direct investment＇s location choice for the ASEAN countries by spatial lag model,judgeing the type of FDI and verifiying that whether there is a third-party effect in ASEAN where China invests directly. The empirical results show that., the real exchange rate,the relative to the size of the market and the wage differentials for China＇s direct investment in ASEAN have a significant positive, impact; trade promotes its investment between China and ASEAN; energy and tax rate for China＇ s direct investment in ASEAN have a significant negative impact; the infrastructure, the political risk and the degree of openness for China＇s direct investment in ASEAN is not the type of the China＇s direct investments in ASEAN is horizontal FDI; the third-party effect is not significant for China＇s direct investment in ASEAN.