中国货币政策工具的选择:数量型还是价格型?——基于DSGE模型的分析

Monetary Policy Tools of China:Quantity or Price Rules?——Analysis Based on DSGE Model

本文构建了具有微观基础的动态随机一般均衡模型,在其基础上考察了我国央行不同货币政策工具的选择对经济所造成的影响。针对不同经济情况,本文具体分析了通货膨胀率和产出缺口的脉冲响应,检验了数量型工具和价格型工具的调控效果。实证结果显示,价格型工具在很多方面较数量型工具更优,尤其在短期内更能有效熨平经济波动;但数量型调控却更有利于通货膨胀的稳定。本文认为,我国央行在不放弃数量型工具的同时,应逐渐增加价格型工具的调控比例,建立以利率进行短期调控、以货币供应量进行长期调控的货币政策调控机制。

By using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, this paper analyzes the impact of differentmonetary policy tools on the economy and discusses the impulse response of the inflation rate and the output gap in detailunder different situation. Evidence shows that price-based monetary policy is better than the quantitative tools in manyrespects, especially when short-term economic fluctuations emerge. However, quantitative tools are more conducive to thestability of inflation. This paper suggests that the central bank of China can not give up quantitative tools, but shouldgradually increase the proportion of using price instruments, literally, establishing a regulatory mechanism of monetary policybased on interest rates for short-term adjustment and on the supply of currency for long-term adjustment at the same time.