低碳约束下中国核电发展及其规模分析

The Development and Scale of the Nuclear Power in China under the Restraint of Low Carbon

面对能源紧缺和环境约束问题,世界各国纷纷投入到新能源开发中来。核电因其清洁、高效、低碳、经济等特性逐渐受到各国的青睐。福岛核事故后,世界核电发展进入低潮,中国于2012年11月重新启动核电项目建设。在国际低碳发展背景和约束下,分析中国核电发展情况及发展空间与规模显得十分有必要。本文根据中国发展核电的政策形势,结合当前国际低碳发展背景和国内能源情况,阐述了在降低碳排放和优化能源结构保障能源安全方面,中国发展核电的积极作用。其次,在借鉴国内外研究数据的基础上,讨论和比较了在基于碳价的基础上核电项目的经济性,得出在考虑碳排放的环境外部性情况下,核电经济优势明显,同时当贴现率为5%时,核电极具竞争力。再次,在电力行业碳排放约束下,采用情景分析方法,分析中国核电发展中长期的适宜规模:2020年装机容量为0.5-0.7亿k W,发电量为3 750-5 250亿k Wh(设备年利用小时数按7 500h计算),总发电占比为5%-7%;2030年装机容量为1.2-1.4亿k W,总发电占比为7%-10%。最后,针对未来核电发展规模的扩大,提出了健全核安全文化,加大安全管理监督力度;建立铀矿储备保障体系;注重核电产业链建设,提升核电设备国产化水平;激励核电企业自主创新,参与国际竞争等政策建议。

Facing the energy shortage and environmental constraints, countries all over the world invested in developing new energy. As a kind of new energy, nuclear power is favored gradually by the characteristics of cleanness, safety, low-carbon, economical and highly supplying capability. After Fukushima nuclear accident, the world＇s nuclear power industry turned into the low tide. However, China restarted its nuclear power project in November, 2012. Under the international background of low carbon development, it is necessary to carry out some researches on the development of China＇s nuclear power. According to the policies of the development of nuclear power, considering the background of the international low-carbon development and the domestic energy situation, this paper illustrated the positive role nuclear power played in reducing CO2 emission, optimizing energy structure and securing energy safety. Refer to research results both at home and abroad, this paper discussed the economical viability of nuclear power based on carbon price, the results show that nuclear power has significant economic advantages when considering the externality of CO2 emission, what is more,if discount rate is as low as 5% , nuclear power would be very competitive. We analyzed the scale of China＇s nuclear power based on scenarios of restraint of CO2 emission, the proper mid-term and long-term scales could be estimated with following results ： by 2020, the installed capacity is 50 - 70 million kilowatts ; power generation output is 375 - 525 billion kWh ; and percentage of nuclear power in total power output is 5% -7% ; by 2030, the installed capacity is 120 - 140 million kilowatt; percentage of nuclear power in total power output is 7% - 10%. Finally, some proposals were put forward to future development of China＇s nuclear power.