中国省域农业碳减排潜力及其空间关联特征——基于空间权重矩阵的空间Durbin模型

Potential of Agricultural Carbon Reduction under Climate Change and Its Spatial Correlation Characteristics in China:Based on the Spatial Durbin Model

科学估算各地区碳减排潜力并探讨其空间异质性是制定减排政策及碳权交易政策的重要基础。本文基于环境生产技术,通过构建期望产出与非期望产出共存的农业经济核算体系,以2001-2012年中国大陆31个省区作为研究对象,首先利用方向距离函数测算农业碳排放影子价格,并以此构建农业碳减排潜力指数,通过计算发现,考察期间,中国各省域农业碳减排潜力水平呈现相对平稳略有提升趋势,各时期的农业碳减排潜力水平地区差异明显。在此基础上,引入考虑空间距离函数的空间权重矩阵,通过空间自相关Moran’s I指数检验得出:中国各省域农业碳减排潜力存在显著的空间依赖性。最后,采用空间Durbin模型探讨中国省域农业碳减排潜力的空间关联特征,结果显示一个省区的农业碳减排潜力水平不单受到自身经济及产业状况的影响,还与其所处的环境及相邻省区的发展情况具有一定相关性,具体表现为:各省区的经济发展水平及农业经济发展水平、农业产业结构等因素对本省区农业碳减排潜力有显著正向促进作用,而对外开放程度和农业受灾率在一定程度上阻碍了本省区农业碳减排潜力的提升;一个省区的农业公共投资、对外开放程度对除本省市外其他省区农业碳减排潜力有显著正向影响,农业产业结构对除本省市外其他省区农业碳减排潜力有显著负向影响。建议各省区除调整根据各影响指标落实本省内农业碳减排工作外,还需加强与其他省份的减排合作,充分利用空间因素溢出效应,通过建立相邻省区间以碳排放权交易中心促进跨省域减排合作机制及减排补偿制度。

It is an important basis of the emission reduction policies and carbon trading policy to estimate the reduction potential of regional carbon emissions scientifically and explore its spatial heterogeneity. In this paper, based on the environmental production technology, by constructing the agricultural economic system coexisting with expected and non expected output, with 31 provinces in China during the period from 2001 to 2012 as the research objects, we firstly used the directional distance function to estimate the shadow price of agricultural carbon emissions, built potential index of reducing agricultural carbon emissions, and found that there are obvious differences of the agricultural carbon emissions reduction potential levels among the 31 regions in China. Considered the space distance function with spatial weight matrix, through Moran＇ s I test, we found that there is significant spatial dependence in the potential of agricultural carbon reduction. Then, we used the spatial Durbin model to study the spatial correlation characteristics of the potential for agricultural carbon reduction among each provinces. Results show that the level of economic development, agricultural economic development, and agricultural industrial structure exert significantly positive influences, while the degree of openess and agricultural disaster rate have an significantly negative effect on the province＇ s own potential for reducing the agricultural carbon emissions. The agricultural public investment and degrees of openess positively affect the potential of agricultural carbon reduction of the surrounding provinces, while the industrial structure of agriculture has a significantly negative impact on that of the surrounding provinces. As a suggestion, we would like to encourage each province that beside implementing the work of reducing agricultural carbon in its own region by adjusting the affected factors, it＇ s supposed to strengthen the cooperation with other provinces in carbon reduction projects, and make full use of the spillover effect of space factors to improve the efficiency of cooperation mechanism and compensation system of carbon reduction by establishing carbon trading center among the adjacent provinces.