基于Probit模型的水稻种植户金融需求影响及抑制因素研究——以广东195户水稻种植户为例

Influence and disincentive factors of rice farmers' financial demand based on Probit model ——Taking the survey data of 195 rice farmers in Guangdong as example

近几年的中央一号文件均持续重点谈到我国农村金融问题,农户金融需求也是农村金融的重要组成部分,然而农户金融抑制问题一直是制约农村金融改革的瓶颈,因此解决农户贷款难问题对于农村金融的健康发展具有决定性作用。广东水稻产业中最微观的经营主体——水稻种植户对农村金融的发展有着重要作用,因此研究水稻种植户的金融需求,对解除金融抑制、提高金融支持效率有重大意义。通过对广东珠三角、粤东、粤北的代表性县镇江门台山、梅州梅县和蕉岭、惠州横沥等195户水稻种植户开展问卷调查,获得微观数据。运用Probit模型对影响因素进行显著性分析,结果发现水稻种植面积、水稻种植收入占比以及在家务农人数对水稻种植户的金融需求影响显著,在此基础上,进一步从水稻种植户自身、金融机构、宏观政策3个方面总结出造成贷款难和金融抑制问题的原因,并提出相应的政策建议,保障水稻再生产的顺利进行以及水稻产业链的顺利延伸,使得金融支持发挥其产业核心驱动力的作用。

In recent years, the central document has continued to focus on the financial problems in rural China, the financial demand of farmers is an important part of rural finance, bnt farmers＇ financial repression is the bottleneck restricting rural financial reform, Thus solving the difficult of loans to farmers has a decisive role for the healthy development of rural finance. Rice farmers, the most micro business entities of rice industry in Guangdong Province, have a negligible role in the development of this industry. Therefore, research on the financial demand of rice farmers is very meaningful for lifting financial repression, improving the efficiency of financial support. This paper selected Taishan, Jiangmen, Meixian and Jiaoling in Meizhou, Hengli in Huizhou, the representative towns in the Pearl River Delta, eastern Guangdong, northern Guangdong and other regions, as study areas, conducted survey on 195 rice farmers to obtain micro data, and used Probit model to analyze the significant factors influencing farmers＇ financial demand. The results showed that the planting area, proportion of planting income and number of farmers at home had significant impacts on the financial demand of rice farmers. Furthermore, from three aspects including rice farmers themselves, financial institutions, macroeconomic Dolicy,this paper summarized the causes of rice farmers＇ financial repression issues, and put forward policy recommendations, to ensure the smooth reproduction and extension of rice industry chain, strengthen the role of financial support as core driving force in rice industry .