石羊河流域变化环境下的水库调度决策研究——以红崖山水库为例

Decision of Reservoir Operation under Changing Environment in Shiyang River Basin——The Case Study of Hongyashan Reservoir

以石羊河流域干流下游的红崖山水库为研究对象,基于Mann-Kendall检验结果,即所得年径流序列突变年份为1972年,在选取基流和降水、气温作为影响径流主要水文和气象因子的基础上,进行蔡旗断面的月径流预测,进而推算得出红崖山水库入库径流。以此来水为输入,构建适用于水库下游红崖山灌区的水库优化调度模型,并用动态规划方法求解。该模型在考虑如何调蓄上游来水、重新分配径流、规划灌区需水期间供水的基础上获得理想的经济收益。

In this paper,Hongyashan Reservoir,located in the lower reaches of the Shiyang River Basin,was selected as the research area.Based on the results of non-parametric Mann-Kendall test,the annual runoff sequence mutation is income in 1972 year.This research also predicts the monthly runoff of Caiqi cross section after choosing the base flow,precipitation and temperature as the main hydrographic and meteorological factors.Thus the runoff of Hongyashan Reservoir is forecasted.Taking the runoff of Hongyashan Reservoir as the model input,this paper establishes a reservoir optimal dispatching model for the Hongyashan irrigation areas downstream,and dynamic programming is adopted to solve the developed model.The objective of the developed model is to obtain the applicable economic benefits by considering the regulation and redistribution of the runoff from upstream and planning water supply for irrigation areas.