人口红利对我国城乡收入差距的影响研究

Study of Impact of Demographic Dividend on the Urban-Rural Income Gap

人口红利促进经济增长,但是城乡收入差距却不断扩大。从人口红利的两个显著特征,高劳动参与率和总抚养比的下降两个途径提出理论假说。以中国1993—2012年的第二三产业总比重、城乡人力资本投资差异和城乡收入差距的时间序列数据,构建VECM模型。实证结果表明:城乡收入差距长期受到产业结构的变动和城乡人力资本投资差异的共同作用;在滞后期内,第二三产业总比重的增加导致城乡收入差距缩小,城乡人力资本投资差异的扩大将导致城乡收入差距扩大。

Demographic dividend promotes economic growth,but it is widening the urban-rural income gap. This paper relied on two significant characteristics of demographic dividend,and put forward theoretical hypothesis from high labor participation rate and the decrease of total dependency rati-o. According to theoretical hypothesis,adopting time series data of the total proportion of secondary industry and tertiary industry,the urban-rural human capital investment difference and the urban-rural income gap from 1993 to 2012 in China,we built VECM model. The empirical results show that the change of industrial structure and the difference of urban-rural human capital investment all affect the urbanrural income gap. In the lag period,the increase of the total proportion of secondary industry and tertiary industry will narrow the gap between urban and rural areas,but the expansion of urban-rural human capital investment difference will widen the income gap between urban and rural areas.