我国经济增长与产业结构的互动关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

A Study on the Interaction between Economic Growth and Industrial Structure——Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

经济增长与产业结构存在着密不可分的互动关系。本文基于1978~2013年的数据,运用VAR模型对我国改革开放以来经济增长与产业结构的互动关系进行了实证研究。研究表明,我国的经济增长与产业结构存在着长期稳定的均衡关系;改革开放以来,第二产业的发展对于产业结构的优化和升级起了最主要的作用;从短期来看,第三产业对产业结构的影响效果将比较突出;而产业结构升级对经济增长的影响作用过程缓慢但是效果较为持久。在经济新常态的发展阶段,第二、三产业的发展将对产业结构的变迁起主要作用,而产业结构优化升级将对我国经济的可持续发展产生持续而深远的影响。

Economic growth and industrial structure exists a close interaction relationship. Based on the data from 1978 to 2013, t his essay use the VAR model to study the interaction between economic growth and industrial structure from China＇s reform and opening up. Research shows that China＇s economic growth and industrial structure exists long- term stable equilibrium relationship. Since China＇s re- form and opening up, the secondary industry＇s development plays a major role for the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. In the short term, the tertiary industry effect significantly on the industrial structure. The upgrading of industrial structure influence on eco- nomic growth is slow, but the effect is more durable. In the development phase of the new economic normality, the development of the secondary industry and the te^ary industry will play a major role in changes of the industrial structure, and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure will produce sustained and had far- reaching impact on the sustainable development of China＇s economy.