结构调整与技术进步对碳排放影响的空间效应分析

The Study of Spatial Effect between Carbon Dioxide Emissions,Structural Change and the Development of Technology

对1997～2012年中国分省域碳排放的数据进行详细测算，发现碳排放具有明显的空间相关性。利用空间面板数据模型分析发现，单位国内生产总值（GDP）能耗和能源结构碳强度对碳排放的影响较为突出。通过检验发现建立空间杜宾模型是最优的。结论：进一步加快产业结构优化升级，培育优势创新产业集群，推广清洁技术的利用，改善以煤炭为主不合理的一次能源消费结构，并充分考虑区域间的集聚效应，在碳减排活动中充分加强区域协作。

This paper analyzes the obvious spatial correlation among carbon emissions based on the calculation of provincial data of the emissions in China in the period 1997- 2012. We analyze the structural and technology factors using the Spatial Panel Data Model. Wald and LR test shows that spatial durbin model is the best to describe the data. The empirical evidence, consumption per GDP and the carbon intensity of the energy structure exert seriously influence on the emissions, which suggest that we have to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, develop the cluster effect of modem industries, promote the clean technology and change the ＂coal- based＂ energy structure. What＇s more, we have to pay attention to the spatial effects and strengthen the regional cooperation in the emission reducing works.