基于ISM模型的我国能源需求影响因素研究

Study on Affecting Factors of China's Energy Demand Based on ISM

能源需求的变化不仅受到能源系统内部因素的影响,而且还受到宏观经济、政策法规、技术进步和人口以及大气环境质量等因素的影响,并且各因素之间相互关联、相互制约。本文运用系统工程方法分析能源需求影响因素及其二元关系,利用ISM模型分析能源需求影响因素之间的递阶层次关系,分析影响能源需求的直接影响因素、间接影响因素和根本影响因素。分析结果表明宏观经济、产业政策、产业结构和技术进步等是影响能源需求的根本因素,能源价格、能源供给和输送能力等是影响能源需求的间接因素,城市化、工业化、人口以及大气环境质量目标等是影响能源需求的直接因素。

Energy demand is not only influenced by factors of energy system, but also economy, laws and regulations, technical progress, population, quality of atmospheric environment, and so on. And various factors connected to each other, and mutual restriction between each one. This paper by utilizing the method of system engineering analyzes the factors that affect energy demand and its binary re- lationship. Using the interpretation structure model it also analyzes the hierarchy relationships of the influencing factors of energy demand, analyzing the direct factors, indirect influence factors and basic influence factors of the energy demand. Analysis results show that the macro economy, industrial policy, industrial structure and technical progress are the fundamental factors that affect demand for energy, such as energy prices, energy supply, and transmission capacity is the indirect factors influencing the demand for energy, urbanization, industrialization, people＇s income and population, and atmospheric environmental quality objectives, etc. are the direct factors affect the demand for energy.