能源消费、产业结构与经济增长——基于省级面板数据的分析

Energy Consumption, Industrial Structure and Economic Growth——An Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data

本文利用2000年-2012年中国30个省市自治区(除西藏)的面板数据建立面板协整方程来分析产业结构和经济增长对各地区能源消费的影响,并在协整方程的基础上验证能源消费与经济增长是否存在倒U型曲线关系。分析结果表明:能源消费、产业结构和经济增长存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。产业结构的优化升级会减少能源的消费,而经济的增长会带动能源消费的增加,并且不同地区的能源消费和经济增长的弹性系数存在区域差异,但是能源消费和产业结构的弹性系数却不存在区域差异。同时,能源消费与经济增长的倒U型曲线关系是存在的。

The paper establishes panel data cointegration equation to analyze the impact of industrial structure and economic growth to the energy consuraption for all regions, and to verify a inverted U curve exist between economic growth and energy consumption, basing on the Chinese provincial data （except Tibet） from 2000 to 2012. The research results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship among the energy consumption, industrial structure and economic growth. The industrial restructuring will reduce the energy consumption, however, economic growth will promote the increase of energy consumption. In addition, the elastic coefficient of energy consumption and economic growth in different areas is different, but the elastic coefficient of energy consumption and industrial structure is not regional differences. At the same time, there do exist inverted U curve between economic growth and energy consumption.