考虑决策者心理行为的多时期应急决策方法

AN APPROACH TO MULTIPERIOD EMERGENCY DECISION-MAKING WITH CONSIDERATION OF THE DECISION MAKER'S PSYCHOLOGICAL BEHAVIOR

针对多时期应急方案生成中缺乏考虑决策者心理行为问题,将前景理论和决策者的应急偏好引入案例相似度测算中以获取更有效的应急案例综合相似度测算结果.采用融入了决策者心理行为的案例相似度计算方法,可以选择更有效的应急方案来进行应急响应;利用时序加权算子集结案例相似度融入了决策者的时间偏好,可以更好地辅助决策者选择应急方案.最后,以一个算例说明考虑决策者偏好在多时期综合案例相似度评价中的有效性和实用性.

With respect to the problem of generating multiperiod emergency al- ternative without consideration of the decision maker＇s psychological behaviour, the prospect theory and the decision maker＇s emergency preferences are introduced into the calculation of similarities of emergency cases. By using the computational method for similarities of cases with the consideration of the decision maker＇s psychological behaviour, more effective emergency alternative can be selected to response to emer- gency event. The use of time-series ordered weighted averaging operators for ag- gregating the similarities of emergency cases takes into consideration of the decision maker＇s time preferences, which can help the decision maker to choose the emergency alternative better. A numerical example is finally illustrated to show the effective- ness and the usefulness of considering the decision maker＇s preferences in evaluating multiperiod comprehensive similarity.