成本推动、需求拉动——什么推动了中国房价上涨?

Cost-push or Demand-pull:What Is Driving the Housing Prices in China?

本文以我国房价上涨的成因为切入点,通过构建房地产生产者利润最大化和消费者效用最大化的局部均衡模型,并利用我国2002-2011年的分省面板数据分解出成本、需求和非市场因素在不同时间段和不同地区对我国房地产价格的拉动程度,揭示出我国房地产价格上涨的原因。研究发现,在我国"房价较快增长地区",具有明显的需求拉动型特征,且市场预期因素明显;在我国部分"房价较慢增长地区",房价上涨的成本推动特征明显;金融危机前,我国房价属于典型的成本推动型价格上涨;而后金融危机时期,则呈现出需求推动型特征。因此,在"房价较快增长地区",需要从抑制过剩需求、降低投机欲望、稳定市场预期等入手来实现房价调控的效果;而在"房价较慢增长地区",则应从加大土地供给、降低土地成本入手,抑制房价上涨的潜在可能。

A partial equilibrium model for real estate producer＇s profit maximization and consumer＇s utility maximization is established to look for the causes of housing prices increasing. The provincial panel data from 2002 to 2011 is used to decompose cost, demand and non-market factors of driven degree on China＇s housing prices in different time periods and different regions, and reveal the causes of China＇s real estate prices increasing. The results show that, in the ＂regions whose prices increase rapidly＂ of China, there is a significant demand-pull characteristic of housing price; But in the ＂regions whose prices increase slow- ly＂, the cost-push characteristic is obvious. On the other hand, before the financial crisis, China＇s housing prices have typical cost-push characteristics; while after the financial crisis, there is a significant demandpull characteristic. Therefore, for the regions with demand-pull characteristics of housing price, we should inhibit the excess demand, reduce the speculative desire, stabilize market expectations and so on, to realize the effect of price regulation; And for the region with demand-pull characteristics of housing price, the governments should increase land supply and reduce land cost to curb the potential increasing of housing prices