Construction schedule risk analysis of high roller-compacted concrete dams based on improved CSRAM

The applied technology of high roller-compacted concrete(RCC) dams is quite complicated because of various risk factors, including the weather condition, supply of concrete aggregate, efficiency of transport machinery and dam surface machinery, and so on. In order to ensure the comprehensiveness, accuracy and objectivity of construction schedule risk analysis, a mathematical model called improved correlated schedule risk analysis model(CSRAM) is proposed in this paper. This model takes into account not only the construction features of high RCC dams, but also the stochastic variations of risk factors with the construction schedule, as well as their comprehensive effects. Using Monte Carlo method to solve this model enables the completion probability of a high RCC dam construction within plan time, and uncertainty analysis of risk factors. Compared with the conventional CSRAM, the improved CSRAM has higher completion probability and more convergent distribution of a simulation period, making analysis results more accurate and closer to actual engineering conditions. Among the ten risk factors selected, efficiency of dam surface machinery and proficiency of workers are found to be of the maximum uncertainty.