我国广义货币供给的合理性判定——货币政策的新参考

The Judgement of Broad Money Supply's Rationality in China——The New Reference of Monetary Policy

本文基于我国1985—2014年度GDP与M2的数据,深入分析了我国GDP与M2之间的关系。分析发现:我国M2的平均产出和边际产出都处于下降趋势;货币投放对经济增长的推动作用正在不断弱化,我国靠宽松货币政策刺激经济的效果会越来越弱;在关注GDP的情况下,虽不能找出最优的M2的供给量,但却能识别M2的供给是否不足,即能找出"GDP产出第二阶段"的开始点;产出的货币弹性概念综合了边际值与平均值,亦可参照我国产出的货币弹性来观测M2的供给是否合理,从而为我国货币政策的制定提供参考。

Based on the data of China’s GDP and M2 in 1985—2014,from the total value,average value,mar-ginal value to value of elasticity, this article gives an in-depth analysis of the relationship between China’s GDP and M2. Through the analysis of this article, we find that the average output and the marginal output of Chinese M2 are all in decline;the driving effect of putting currency into circulation on economic growth is becoming weakening, the effect of our country by easing monetary policy to stimulate the economy will be more and more weak. In the case of a focus on GDP, although we cannot find out the optimal supply of M2, we can identify if the supply of M2 is insufficient,that is to say,we can find the start point of the second stage of GDP output;the concept of currency flexibility combines the marginal value and average value, so we can also refer to the currency flexibility of output to observe if the supply of M2 is normal,thereby providing reference for the formulation of China’s monetary policy.