货币政策正常化：前景展望--耶伦在加州联储会议上的讲话

Normalizing Monetary Policy-Prospects and Perspectives: A Speech by Janet L.Yellen on the Conference of FRB of San Francisco

随着美国国内经济基本面的持续改善,美联储货币政策正在步入正常化的调整通道。本文首先阐述了当前美国经济基本面的运行情况,经济复苏基础的不断夯实表明联邦基金利率提高的时间窗口正在逐步逼近;其次,讨论了提高联邦基金利率的时间,并认为2015年晚些时候可能成为联邦基金利率上调的绝佳时机;再次,讨论了未来货币政策的可行路径,基于经济形势的前景预测,联邦基金利率存在稳步上升的动力;最后论述了决策者在当前环境下应该考虑的风险和相关因素。结论表明,为了实现最大就业和价格稳定的双重目标,美联储货币政策的具体实施路径将以数据为依托。

With the continued improvement in domestic economic fundamentals, the viability of Fed＇s normaliz-ing monetary policy is increasing. Firstly, this paper describes the current operation of the US economic fundamen-tals,the economic recovery continues to consolidate shows that the time window of the federal benchmark interest rate is gradually approaching;Secondly,the article discusses the time to raise the federal benchmark interest rate,and em-phasizes that the later in this year could be the perfect time to hike the benchmark interest rate;again, the article dis-cusses the possible path of monetary policy in next few years,based on the prospects for the economic situation,there is a steady increase in the federal funds rate;then,the article discusses the three aspects of the risks and related factors that decision-makers should consider in the current environment; finally, the paper made a summary, in order to achieve dual objectives of maximum employment and price stability,so as to promote economical entities sustained de-velopment, the specific path of monetary policy must be based on the data.