南海外海渔场渔情分析预报的探讨

On the forecast and analysis of fishing grounds in the open South China Sea

南海海域自然条件优越,资源丰富,长期以来形成了众多的捕捞渔场。近年来,南海北部近海渔业资源持续衰退,相较于近海,中南部外海海域具有较大的开发潜力。渔情分析预报是渔场海洋学研究的重要内容,已在多种大洋性鱼类预报中应用。渔情分析预报技术在南海外海渔场的开发利用、渔业生产的指导和渔业资源的优化管理上都有着非常关键的作用。本文结合南海外海特有的海洋环境特征、主要渔业资源分布及其捕捞作业方式,分析了适用于南海外海渔业资源的渔情分析预报方法和模型,并就现阶段南海渔情预报存在的困难和问题进行了探讨。

South China Sea （SCS）, an important fishing ground in China, is vast and has rich fishery resources. Fishery resources in the inshore of SCS has been depleted due to overfishing while south-central open sea still has great development potential. Fishing condition analysis and prediction is an important part of fishery research and has already been used in various oceanic fisheries. The application of proper technology plays a key role not only in the exploitation and utilization of fisheries but also in guiding fishery operation scientifically and optimizing the management of fishery resources. Combined with the specific environment features, the main fishery resources distribution and fishing methods in the offshore of SCS, the paper reviewed fishing condition analysis and forecast models that are suitable for practices in SCS and its research status, and further discussed the difficulties and problems of SCS fishing forecast at the present stage.