葡萄皮尔斯病在上海的入侵风险分析

Invasion risk analysis of Pierces' disease of grapevine to Shanghai

葡萄皮尔斯病菌可引起葡萄等植物的灾难性毁灭,是世界上重要的检疫性有害生物。笔者采用多指标综合评价的方法,从传入可能性、定殖可能性、扩散可能性、受害寄主经济重要性和危险性管理难度等5个准则层所包括的18个指标层因子,对该病菌进行了定性和定量入侵风险分析。结果表明,葡萄皮尔斯病菌在上海的入侵风险指标值R为2.20,属于高风险的有害生物,建议在上海口岸进境检疫中对葡萄皮尔斯病实施严格检疫。针对上海这一风险性极高的病原微生物,作者提出在引种过程中除了要对该病菌的寄主植物进行严格检疫,还应实施2年以上的隔离试种,防止该病进入上海并向其他省区进一步蔓延传播。

Pierces＇ disease of grapevine（ PD） , causing catastrophic destruction of grapes and other plants, is the impor.tant quarantine target in many countries around the world. From 5 aspects of the possibility of incoming, colonization, diffusion, the victim host economic importance and difficulty of risk management, including 18 indicators, this article has carried the bacteria invasion risk analysis on the qualitative and quantitative level. The results showed that the inva.sion risk index value （R） of PD in Shanghai was 2.20 and PD belonged to high.risk levels of harmful organisms. It is necessary to implement strict quarantine to this disease in Shanghai, and more than two years isolated planting were re.quired to prevent further spreadings in other places.