中国北方地区粮食生产格局的时空变化特征

Spatial-temporal Changes of Grain Production in the North China

采用定量与定性相结合的方法,以GIS技术和空间统计分析方法为主,分析了中国北方地区粮食生产格局的时空变化特征。结果表明,全国粮食总产量总体呈波动增长趋势,北方粮食产量增幅大于南方。粮食生产的区域格局发生了变化,北方粮食生产地位已超过南方,目前在全国的占比达56%。北方地区主要粮食作物总产量和单位播种面积产量在波动中实现大幅增长;从播种面积来看,北方小麦播种面积呈减少趋势,玉米面积增加明显,水稻面积增加不显著。反映了过去几十年粮食作物种植结构的变化特点,主要是小麦的种植比重下降而玉米种植比重上升。也从单产的提升潜力和后备耕地与水资源条件等方面分析了北方不同区域粮食增产的限制性因素,认为未来粮食安全保障应在稳定华北播种面积的同时,以拓展东北的生产能力为主要发展方向,而西北干旱区和中部半干旱区则主要以生态恢复和保护优先。

The quantitative and qualitative analysis was adopted by using the GIS technology and spatial statistical analysis method to analyze the spatial-temporal change of grain production in North China. The results showed that the overall trend of grain production was increased, and the amplification in the North was larger than in the South. The regional pattern of grain production has changed status of the northern grain production over the South. Northern grain production in the country accounted for 56 percent. Northern areas of major food crops yield and yield per unit area achieved substantial growth in fluctuation; the trend of wheat acreage in northern decreased and corn area increased significantly, but except for rice area. Reflecting the changes of crop planting structure in the past few decades, the proportion of wheat planted has declined, and corn has risen. This treatise also analyzed the limiting factors of the northern grain production of different regions in improved yield potential and reserve of arable land and water resources, etc. The main development direction future food security should be stable acreage in North and expand the production capacity of the Northeast. The Northwest and Central Arid Zone is mainly semi-arid ecological restoration and conservation priorities.