基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的山东省人口预测与可持续发展研究

Application of Grey GM( 1,1) Model in Population Forecasting and Sustainable Development of Shandong Province

采用1985~2012年山东省人口统计数据分析了山东省人口的发展趋势,并选取2001~2009年的净增人口数,建立不同维数的灰色GM（1,1）模型.选用2011年和2012年的总人口数来检验模型,最后选取5维GM（1,1）模型,对山东省2013~2020年的总人口进行了预测,结果表明山东省总人口在未来一段时间内持续增加,并且增加的速度变缓,在2020年将达到9948.1332万人.在预测的基础上分析了人口与土地资源、淡水资源的可持续发展,并对山东省今后实现人口可持续发展提出了对策.

The development trend of the Shandong Province’s population was analyzed using demographic data between 1985 and 2012,and different dimension gray GM （1,1） model was established selecting the net in-crease number of population between 2001 and 2009. The total 2011 and 2012 demographic data were chosed to test the model and finally five dimensional GM （1. 1） model was selected to predict Shandong Province’s to-tal population between 2013 and 2020. It was shown that the total population of Shandong Province continued to increase in the next period of time,and the rate of increase is slowly. The total population will reach 99. 481332 million in 2020. On the basis of the forecast,the sustainable development of population,land resources and freshwater resources were analyzed,and the countermeasures to achieve the sustainable development of Shandong Province’s population was proposed.