金融包容、金融稳定与贫困减缓——基于ARDL-ECM模型的估计

Financial Inclusion,Financial Stability and Poverty Alleviation: An Empirical Test with ARDL- ECM Model

本文分别以金融包容深度、宽度两个单指标和金融包容综合指标表示金融包容,以我国1978-2007年时间序列数据为样本,运用适合小样本的ARDL方法检验金融包容、金融稳定对贫困减缓的影响。实证结果表明:金融包容对贫困减缓有着积极的作用,金融发展的稳定能够显著提高这一效果;金融包容和金融发展的稳定对贫困减缓具有长期的影响;经济增长和收入分配是重要的间接影响路径,其中经济增长有利于贫困减缓,而收入分配差距的扩大不利于贫困减缓。

This paper investigates the impacts of inclusive financial development and financial stability on poverty allevia- tion using inclusive financial development depth, width and synthetic index as inclusive financial development indicator with the time series data of China from 1978 to 2007 by ARDL method suited for small samples. The results suggest that inclusive financial has a positive effect on poverty alleviation, financial stability can improve the effect significantly; fi- nancial inclusion and financial stability have a long term effect on poverty alleviation; economic growth and income distri- bution are important indirect effect paths, among which economic growth is conducive to poverty alleviation, and the in- come gap is not conducive to poverty alleviation.