Markov区制转移“泰勒规则”型货币政策在我国的非线性特征

Nonlinear Characteristic of Markov Regime Switching “Taylor Rule”Type Monetary Policy in China

本文研究了"泰勒规则"型货币政策在我国的非线性特征,结果表明:利率对通货膨胀的反应存在两个区制状态,即基于"泰勒规则"型货币政策对通货膨胀的调整既存在积极的区制状态,也存在消极的区制状态,并且利率没有起到调节产出的作用;具有马尔可夫区制转移的泰勒规则能更好地适用中国的实际政策规则。

The paper studies the nonlinear characteristic of ＂Taylor rule＂ type monetary policy in China. Results verify that the reaction of interest rate to inflation has two regime states ： positive and negative, and interest rates does not play the role of regulating the output; Taylor rule with Markov regime switching can better apply the actual policy rules of Chi- na.