从抓住机遇到保持理性——2002-2014年美国在线高等教育发展历程的数据分析与趋势思考

From Seizing the Opportunity to Grade Level ——On the Online Higher Education in the United States, 2002-2014

通过定量展现和客观评估2002-2014年间全美高等院校在线教育的发展历程,文章认为美国在线高等教育大致经历了面向技术的"媒介应用"阶段、面向内容的"课程整合"阶段和面向平台的"网络生态"三个发展阶段,对应确立了追求教育手段优化的在线教育观、追求教育策略优化的在线教育观和追求教育系统优化的在线教育观。据此,文章对我国在线高等教育的未来发展方向及路径进行了初步思考,提出"学校—教师—学生"三要素协同耦合、"内容—技术—平台—政策"四位一体的双螺旋发展路径建议。

By quantitatively examining and reviewing the nature and extent of online higher education in the United States for the past twelve years, this paper presents three development patterns to summarize the US＇ online higher education development path, namely the technology oriented media application pattern, the curriculum oriented course integration pattern, and the platform oriented network ecology pattern. Based on these findings, this paper proposes a double helix model that one is the ＂institution--faculty--student＂ backbone on the demand side, the other is the ＂content--technology--platform--policy＂ backbone on the supply side to investigate and develop the roadmap for China＇s online higher education initiative.