基于GDP增长的城市人口规模增长预测——以庆阳市西峰区为例

A Prediction Method of Urban Population Based on GDP Growth:A Case Study of Xifeng District in Qingyang City

在经济增长是城市人口增长主要因素下,该研究专注于经济因素引起城市人口规模增长的预测,提出基于GDP增长的城市人口规模增长预测方法。其思路是通过评估就业弹性系数,计算GDP增长带动人数增加,并进一步通过就业负担系数测算城市人口增量。最后,该文以经济快速发展的庆阳市西峰区为例,测算得到该地城市人口因经济因素增加规模为:2011-2015年间6.28万人,2011-2020年间11.23万人。

The employment status depends on the urban economic promotion, which would result in the increasing of urban population. This paper focuses on the population prediction of urban, whose population development is driven by economic promotion, particularly in the sharply developing city. A novel population prediction method based on GDP growth is proposed to achieve a reasonable population prediction for the rapidly developing cities. The GDP in the next years is firstly predicted. Then the employment growth is obtained by considering the effect of GDP on the employment development. The population increment is eventually approached by calculating and employment coefficient. At last, the application of he method in a rapidly developing city, Qingyang, is performed to present the prediction. It shows the population will increase 62, 800 between 2011and 2015, and 112, 300 between 2015 and 2020, respectively.