大型原油库火灾定量风险评价

Quantitative risk assessment for fire hazards in large-scale crude oil tankfarms

分析了原油库防火堤内池火灾的多米诺事故场景,提出了其多米诺效应的定量风险评价步骤,包括初始事故识别方法,初始事故后果计算方法、储罐间多米诺效应损害概率矩阵、多米诺效应风险排序、初始事故概率修正、个人风险和安全距离等关键步骤。用矩阵的方法建立了储罐之间相互影响的损害矩阵概率模型,方便了编程计算多米诺效应概率。运用风险指数法辨识罐区储罐风险水平高低,简化了事故场景生成过程。结合10×104 m3储罐具体实例,运用池火灾事故后果模型和概率模型对池火灾事故场景进行分析。结果表明:位于罐区中心位置的储罐多米诺效应风险最大;考虑多米诺效应后,各个储罐池火灾初始事故概率均有提高;靠近事故罐中心位置,风险水平提高一个数量级,因此应考虑多米诺效应对储罐间安全防火距离的影响。

This paper reviewed scenario involving domino accidents of pool fire within fire dike of crude oil tankfarm. In addition, procedures for quantitative risk assessment of domino effect have been highlighted： detection of accident in early stages, calculation method for consequences of accident in early stages, matrix for hazard possibilities related to domino effects in tankfarm, ranking of risks related to domino effects, correction of possibilities related to accidents in early stages, risks of individuals, safety clearances and other key procedures. To facilitate the calculation of possibilities related to domino effect through computer programs, model for damage matrix possibilities have beeu established to reflect mutual impacts of storage tanks by using matrix. By using risk indexes to determine risk levels within tankfarm, it is possible to simplify processes for generation of accident scenarios. Taking the 10× 10^4 m^3 storage tank as an example, consequence model and possibility model for accidents involving pool fire have been deployed to analyze pool fire accidents. Relevant results show that storage tanks located around the center of the tankfarm have the highest risks for domino effects. With domino effects considered, all storage tanks have possibilities related to initial accidents increased; level of risks shall be one order higher in locations around the tank with accident. Accordingly, impacts of domino effects to fire protection distance of storage tanks shall be considered. （7 Figures, 3 Tables, 17 References）