房地产价格波动对城镇居民消费影响研究——基于广西14地市面板数据分析

Impacts of Real Estate Price Fluctuations on Urban Resident Consumption——Based on an Analysis of Panel Data of 14 Cities in Guangxi

房产已逐渐成为我国城镇居民最重要的财富资产配置,一些地区研究发现房地产价格上涨将产生财富效应并对经济产生积极影响。近年来,广西房地产价格增长较快,借助生命周期消费理论模型,通过对广西14个地市实证检验,发现房地产价格波动并未对广西城镇居民消费支出水平及消费支出结构产生显著影响。通过考察发现广西城镇居民收入水平大幅提高、住房结构仍以生活必需品为主、房地产金融市场不健全、居民观念和社会保障体系约束,弱化了房产财富效应。为此提出严格执行差别化住房信贷政策、合理调控房地产价格波动区间和健全房地产金融市场等建议。

House property has become the most important wealth asset allocation to China＇s urban residents. The study finds that price increase in real estate markets of some areas will have a wealth effect and a positive impact on the economy. Since recent years Guangxi has seen a quick rise in real estate price. With the theoretical model of Life Cycle Consumption and through empirical test of 14 cities in Guangxi the study has found that the fluctuations of real estate price do not have a significant impact on Guangxi urban resident consumption expenditure level and structure. The investigation also points out that as Guangxi urban resident income level has greatly increased,housing is still the major necessity in life,and that the unsound real estate financial market,along with the constraints of residents＇ ideas and the social security system,is weakening the wealth effect of housing. Therefore,the paper puts forward the following suggestions：to strictly implement the differential housing credit policy,to reasonably regulate the range of real estate price fluctuations and to improve the real estate financial market.