生育政策调整对我国城镇企业职工基本养老保险代际平衡的影响

Influence of the Fertility Policy Adjustments on Intergenerational Balance of Urban Pension Insurance for Enterprise Employees

利用人口预测模型测算生育政策调整对我国城镇人口结构的影响,在此基础上运用代际核算方法分析我国城镇企业职工基本养老保险代际平衡状况,结果显示:(1)2010年出生的城镇男性人口的人均代际账户值大于城镇女性人口的人均代际账户值;(2)在2030年人口峰值出现之前全面放开二胎并在之后取消生育政策的情况下,未来代职工一生中所缴纳的养老保险费用和退休后所获得的养老金收入的差额精算现值与现存代的比值最大,该最大值与养老保险代际平衡时的比值之差最小,表明全面放开二胎是促进我国城镇企业职工基本养老保险代际平衡有效途径之一。

This paper uses the population forecasting model to estimates the influence of the fertility policy adjustments on the urban population structure. On this basis,it uses the generational accounting method to analyze the intergenerational balance of China＇s basic pension insurance for enterprise employees. Through the analysis,the following two conclusions have been drawn：（ 1 ）the per capita intergenerational account value of urban male population who were born during 2010 is more than that of females; （2）before population peak appears in 2030 when liberalization of the second child is fully applied and the family-planning policy is cancelled,the ratio of the actuarial present value balance between life-long pension expenses of future generations and the total amount they receive after retiring is the biggest in contrast to that of the current generations. However, the difference between the biggest ratio and the intergenerational balance is the least. This indicates that the liberalization of the second child is an effective way to promote the intergenerational balance of China＇s basic pension insurance.