农村社会保障对农村居民消费影响的门槛效应与区域异质性——基于面板平滑转换模型的分析

The Threshold Effects and Regional Heterogeneity for Impact of Social Security on Consumer in Rural China——Based on the Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

基于1998～2012年的省级面板数据，采用PSTR模型研究了我国农村社会保障整体水平及其个体保障项目对农村居民消费影响的门槛效应和区域异质性。研究结果表明：（1）农村社会保障整体水平、政府财政救济和新农合对农村居民消费的影响都是非线性的，存在显著的门槛特征。其中，农村社会保障能显著促进居民消费增长，并且在人均水平高于499．080元的地区对居民消费的促进作用更强；政府财政救济项目和新农合保障项目只有在分别跨越门槛值109．489元、323．389元之后，才能对农村居民消费产生显著的促进和拉动作用。（2）农村社会保障对农村居民消费的影响存在显著的区域异质性，经济发展相对落后地区政府财政救济对居民消费的激励效应相对明显，而经济相对发达地区新农合、农村整体社会保障对居民消费的激励效应相对明显。

This study applies panel smooth transition regression （PSTR） model to examine the threshold effects and regional heterogeneity for impact of social security as a whole and the individual on consumer for 30 provinces in rural China from 1998 to 2012. The main empirical findings are as follows. Firstly, the nonlinear impact of rural financial development on social security, financial relief and the new-type rural cooperative medical care, which shows a distinct threshold characteristic. Among them, social security can significantly promote the consumption of rural residents, and the area which the per capita is more than 499. 080 the promoting effect is stronger. Financial relief and the new-type rural cooperative medical care can significantly promote the consumer on only after the financial relief across the threshold 109. 489 and the new-type rural cooperative medical care across the threshold 323. 389. Secondly, there are significant regional heterogeneity in the impact of social protection of rural residents＇ consumption, incentive effects of financial relief to the consumer is relatively clear in underdeveloped areas, and the incentive effects of new-type rural cooperative medical care and the overall level of rural social security to the consumer is relatively obvious in economically developed areas.