通航环境态势辨识模型与应用研究

Study on Application and Identification Model of Navigation Environmental Situation

提取通航环境关键子因素并进行分类,综合运用突变理论和主成分分析的多元统计方法,建立以自然环境和交通环境为控制变量的通航环境态势辨识模型.以长江三峡库区为例,将能见度、风力、流速和航路交汇、航道尺度、交通流共6种对通航风险影响程度最大的关键子因素划分为自然环境和交通环境2个主分量,利用尖点突变模型对库区各区域通航环境所对应的安全态势进行辨识.结果表明,长江三峡库区通航环境态势自下游至上游呈逐渐变差趋势.

By extracting and classifying the key factors of navigational environment ,catastrophe theory and principal component analysis of multivariate statistical methods are integratedly used to establish navigation environmental situation recognition model w hich takes the natural environment and traffic environment as control variables .Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir area in the Yangtze river as an example ,six kinds of critical factors that is visibility ,and wind ,flow velocity and route intersection , channel dimension and traffic flow w hich have greatest influence on navigation risk are divided into two principal components that are natural environment and traffic environment .The cusp catastrophic model is deployed to identify the security situation for the regional navigation environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area .The simulation results indicate that navigational environment situation of the Three Gorges Reservoir area in the Yangtze river is getting worse gradually from downstream to upstream .