中国财政农业支出对农民消费的影响:1978-2013

Effects of China Fiscal Agricultural Expenditure on Peasants' Consumption: from 1978 to 2013

文章运用回归模型和VAR模型,以财政农业支出与农民人均消费作为变量,对两者之间的关系做了深入的理论分析和实证研究。结果显示,1978-1997年间的财政农业支出系数为0.93,而1998-2013年间的财政农业支出系数为0.44,表明农民消费和财政农业支出之间具有明显的相关性,且1997年之后的财政农业支出对农民消费的带动作用不如改革开放之初;财政农业支出的冲击短期内对农民消费会造成波动性。因此,财政支农政策要注重长期规划,以稳定农民的消费预期,最终扩大农村消费。

A theoretical analysis and an empirical study of how to stimulate peasants＇consumption are conducted by regression model and VAR model with fiscal agricultural expenditure and per capita consumption of peasants as variables. The results show that from 1978 to 1997 the coefficient of fiscal agriculture expenditure is 0.94 while from 1998 to 2013 its coefficient is 0.44, which indicates that the peasants＂ consumption bears a significant correlation with fiscal agriculture expenditure and that the role of fiscal agriculture expenditure in stimulating peasantsPconsumption since 1997 is weaker than that during the beginning years of the reform and opening - up. The impact of fiscal agriculture expenditure can cause short term volatility in peasants＇consumption, so agriculture - supporting fiscal policy should emphasize long- term planning, stabilize peasantsj consumption expectations and eventually expand rural consumption.