媒体报道能够降低分析师预测偏差吗？

Does Media Coverage Decrease the Analysts' Forecast Error?

本文利用2003至2011年期间,中国主流财经媒体对上市公司报道的数据,考察了媒体报道对分析师预测行为的影响。文章发现,媒体对上市公司关注度的提升能够显著降低分析师的预测乐观度和预测偏差,而这种影响对于财务信息透明度较差的公司更加明显。进一步的研究发现,媒体关注越高则分歧越小,而媒体分歧的下降能够显著降低分析师预测.乐观度和预测偏差。当我们同时控制了媒体分歧之后,媒体关注度对分析师预测精度的提升作用就不复存在。以上的结果表明,媒体关注对分析师预测行为的影响是通过两个渠道实现的:从上市公司角度而言,媒体报道数量的增加能够有效提高公司信息质量,降低分析师预测偏差;从媒体报道自身角度而言,报道数量的增加能够降低媒体分歧,改善分析师预测精度。

This paper investigates the relationship between media coverage and the analysts＇ forecast errors using the data of China＇ s stock market from 2003 to 2011. We find that media coverage can significantly decrease the analysts＇ optimism and hence their forecast error and this effect is greater for the listed firms who are exposed to bad financial information opacity. Moreover, we find that media coverage will decrease the volatility of sentiment of different media report. When we control the sentiment volatility, the influence of media coverage on forecast error changes. Thus, we have concluded that media will enhance the information quantity of firms. The more media reports a firm acquired and the more precision of the information, the better informed of the firms＇ investors and the more accurate the analysts＇ forecast is.