中美在亚太地区的贸易成本弹性测度与分析——基于改进的超越对数引力模型

Measuring and Analyzing the Trade Cost Elasticity Between China and USA in Asia-Pacific Area——Based on the Revised Translog Gravity Model

本文在Novy(2013)基础上把国内民主化程度作为政治因素引入该模型,以亚太地区包括中国和美国在内的21个国家为观测样本,并利用改进后的模型对中美21大类产品贸易成本弹性分别进行测度与分析。结果显示中美贸易成本弹性均为正,中美平均贸易潜力在亚太国家中居首,进出口弹性差值较小,通过降低贸易成本可提高双边贸易量,出现贸易严重失衡的可能性较小。

In this paper, Novy （2013） Translog Gravity Model is revised and the domestic democratization is introduced as a political factor. Based on the revised model, the paper measures and analyzes the trade cost elasticity in 21 countries in Asia and Pacific area inclu- ding China and USA. The result shows all the elasticities are positive and the trade potential between China and USA ranks the first. It means reducing trade cost could increase the vol- ume of trade for both parties and it is less likely for trade imbalance. It exits potential prod- ucts in intra-industry trade between China and USA.