中—韩FTA的经济效应——对双边贸易流的经验分析框架

Economic Effects of a China-ROK FTA——An Empirical Analysis Framework on Bilateral Trade Flows

本文基于韩国进出口贸易情况,将贸易引力模型和双重差法结合起来,实证分析检验、预测中韩FTA建立对韩国进出口产品产生的贸易效应。计量分析结果显示,韩国产品出口异质性影响非常明显,韩国与发展中经济体签署FTA能够显著促进其对贸易伙伴的商品出口,但韩国与发达经济体签署FTA却显著地降低其对贸易伙伴的商品出口;另外,韩国对外签署的FTA对韩国的进口影响不显著。因此,构建中—韩FTA不仅有助于推动两国双边贸易的发展,更为重要的是,中—韩FTA将为东亚合作提供新动力,帮助中韩两国更好地参与新一轮的国际贸易规则重塑。

Based on ROK＇s import and export trade flows, this paper conducts an empirical analysis and forecasts on ROK＇s import and export trade effects of a China-ROK FTA by combining the trade gravity model with the difference-in-difference method. The results show that heterogeneity of ROK＇s exports is significant. Therefore, ROK＇s FTAs with de- veloping economies can contribute to significantly promoting ROK＇s merchandise exports to its trade partners while ROK＇s FTAs with developed economies has significantly reduced ROK＇s merchandise exports to its trade partners. In addition, trade effect of ROK＇s FTAs on its imports is not significant. Therefore, a China-ROK FTA will not only help promote bilateral trade, but also fuel the East Asian Cooperation process and help China and ROK to better participate in the new round of international rule-setting as well.