基于区间数距离的区间组合预测模型

The Combination Forecasting Model with the Interval Value Based on Distance Between Interval-valued Fuzzy Sets

针对预测值为区间数形式,引入区间数距离,提出一种确定区间组合预测权系数的方法.给出两个区间序列的距离公式,以实际观测序列与组合预测序列的距离最小为准则,建立规划模型,求解得到权系数.最后,通过实例,证明模型能够有效提高预测的精度.

The distance of interval-value fuzzy sets was introduced in the interval combination forecas-ting.A new method to calculate the weight coefficient of the combination forecasting was proposed when forecas-ting value series are given in the form of interval numbers.The distance between the forecasting value series and the actual value series was defined, and a programming model with the criterion of minimizing the distance was constructed.Finally, an example was illustrated to show that the model can improve precision of interval forecas-ting.