人口红利对中国经济增长影响的因素分解

The Factor Decomposition of Impact of Demographic Dividend on Chinese Economic Growth

运用LMDI方法对中国及全国30个省份1989-2012年GDP变动进行因素分解,得出:在影响中国经济总量增长的因素中,劳均生产率增长为第一位原因,平均贡献了经济总量增长的85.05%,人口总数增长为第二位原因,人口结构红利为第三位原因,劳动参与率变化贡献最低;从2010年开始,全国性的劳动力结构性的人口红利已经消失;中国各省份大都很好地利用了人口红利在区域增长中的潜力。对策:提高劳均生产率作为抵消我国人口结构性红利消失对经济增长速度下行的压力;做好大学生就业和劳动参与过程的人力资本积累工作;欠发达地区借助产业转移的机遇,发挥人口红利在区域增长中的潜力等。

Using the LMDI method in factor decomposition of GDP changes 30 provinces in China from 1989 - 2012, the conclusion shows： in the influence factors to economic growth son, which contributes an average economic growth of 85.05% ;populati , labor productivity on growth is second growth is the first rea- reasons, while demo- graphic dividend for third reasons, and labor participation rate changes for the lowest. From the beginning of 2010, the labor structural demographic dividend has disappeared. Every province had good use of demographic dividend in the regional growth potential. The article proposes countermeasure including： improving labor productivity to offset pressure of economic growth rate downward when demographic structure dividend disappears students to accumulate human capital in the process of participating, developing demographic growth potential with the industrial transfer opportunities by underdeveloped region. , encouraging college dividend in regional