央行货币政策工具调整的特征研究:1998-2011

On the Operational Characteristics of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Tools: 1998- 2011

对中国央行1998年以来货币政策工具调整情况的统计显示,利率工具调整具有一定的逆周期特征,存在非对称性偏好;存款准备金率工具调整仅与产出缺口存在较好的对应关系,而与通胀和货币量的对应关系不明显,表现出很强的单向性特征。多元有序选择Probit模型基本能描述货币政策利率工具调整的行为特征,模型综合考虑到了货币政策决策的前瞻性和政策效应的滞后性。研究表明,利率工具调整对产出变动的反应程度大于通胀,对货币量因素的反应程度很弱。

Since 1998, the operation of the tool of benchmark interest rate has distinct characteristics of count- er - cycle and asymmetric preference. There exists a stable corresponding relationship between the operation of the tool of deposit reserve requirement ratio and the output gap. The empirical study of Probit model shows that the benchmark interest rate ＇ s reaction to the output is stronger than to the inflation ,and its reaction to the quantity of money is weak.