制度距离约束下的对外开放与经济周期协同——基于中国与主要贸易伙伴的门槛回归分析

Openness and Business Cycle Comovement under Institutional Distance Constraint:A Threshold Regression Analysis Based on China and Its Major Trading Partners

基于制度距离视角考察对外开放与经济周期协同的非线性关系,通过中国与主要贸易伙伴1997-2012年的面板数据采用Hansen门槛回归模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明,除贸易、投资等传统因素外,制度距离也是影响经济周期协同的重要变量,即使双边对外开放水平相同,其经济周期协同也会因制度距离相异而有所差别。具体表现为,对外开放对经济周期协同的影响确实存在基于制度距离的门槛特征;当制度距离超过一定门槛值后,其影响显著为正;而低于该门槛值时,正向影响明显减弱,甚至变为不显著的负向。

This paper focuses on the non-linear relationship between openness and business cycle comovement from the perspective of institutional distance, making a relevant empirical test by using Hansen threshold model based on the panel data between China and its major trading partners from 1997 to 2012. The result shows that, in addition to trade, investment and other traditional factors, institutional distance is an important variable of influencing the business cycle comovement, even if the bilateral openness is the same, the business cycle comovement will differ because of different in- stitutional distance. The specific performance is that the effect of openness on economic cycle syn~ chronization presents evident threshold characteristic based on institutional distance; when the insti- tutional distance exceeds a certain threshold value, the effect is significantly positive, however, when the institutional distance is below the threshold value, the positive effect is remarkably weak- ened, and even becomes non-significant negative.